Conventional Wisdom:
- The US dollar is going to get weaker.
- Asia is leading worldwide growth.
- Tech stocks are too expensive.
- The US is in the midst of a jobless recovery.
- The world is in the midst of synchronized economic expansion.
- Meddling by lawyers and regulators is the new reality and negative for growth and profits.
- Corporate balance sheet scares are over. It's back to EV/EBITDA and P/Es.
- The developed world is losing its competitive advantage in manufacturing and services to China and India.
- The US is the only developed country with high productivity growth.
- Buy USD, sell Euro.Sell Asia exposure, esp. commodities.
- Buy expensive tech companies with good/improving fundamentals.
- Buy government bonds, sell TIPS.
- Buy staffing companies, consumer cyclicals and sell all other equities.
- Buy industries with increasingly tough regulators (financials, energy, Europe).
- Buy basic US and European industries, sell Infosys and Wipro.
- Buy lower margin Japanese and European competitors (e.g. financials, retail, and transport) as they will soon show huge productivity gains already enjoyed by US companies.Sell their US counterparts.
- Sell US and European consumer stocks, buy Asian consumer stocks; buy dividend yielding stocks and bonds, sell select pharma as elderly will demand price controls on drugs.
---on iPod: All Grown Up - 1958 1:55 Johnny Horton 1956-1960 CD2 Country/Rock
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