Wednesday, April 27, 2005

EU Constitution and Turkey

One interesting aspect of a likely French 'No' vote on EU constitution uis the fact that it will decrease Turkeys chances to EU ascension.
Why ?
Even though there are no technical reasons preventing Turkey joining the EU, the pyschological blow from the "no" vote could be very big. If a EU can not agree of a fairly straighforward issue, then a huge, controversial issue of admitting an entire country with an alien to EU history, population, religion and mindset will likely fail. As French polls indicate, the EU process has lost the credibility with the constituent population, and no matter how much the ruling elites try to repackage and sell the idea, the public is not in mood for buying.

---
On iPod: The Yankee Doodle Blues 3:03 Jack Roth, Jazzbo's Carolina Serenaders, 1922 Anthology of Jazz Drumming1 Jazz

Friday, April 15, 2005

Indian idea of an IP Protection

India's statement from the UN WIPO Conference:
....
The real "development" imperative is ensuring that the interest of Intellectual Property owners is not secured at the expense of the users of IP, of consumers at large, and of public policy in general. The proposal therefore seeks to incorporate int international IP law and practice, what developing countries have been demanding since TRIPS was forced on them in 1994.

The primary rationale for Intellectual Property protection is, first and foremost, to promote societal development by encouraging technological innovation. The legal monopoly granted to IP owners is an exceptional departure from the general principle of competitive markets as the best guarantee for securing the interest of society. The rationale for the exception is not that extraction of monopoly profits by the innovator is, of and in itself, good for society and so needs to be promoted. Rather, that properly controlled, such a monopoly, by providing an incentive for innovation, might produce sufficient benefits for society to compensate for the immediate loss to consumers as a result of the existence of a monopoly market instead of a competitive market. Monopoly rights, then, granted to IP holders is a special incentive that needs to be carefully calibrated by each country, in the light of its own circumstances, taking into account the overall costs and benefits of such protection.

....

Basically, we will take everything that we could get away with because of "our circumstances". People who talk about Chinese and Indian century don't understand the asian mentality


on iPod: Institut Jan 7:10 Hay Tgherk - Hay Tgherk Armenian Rabiz

Tuesday, April 12, 2005

Conventional Wisdom


Conventional Wisdom:


  • The US dollar is going to get weaker.
  • Asia is leading worldwide growth.
  • Tech stocks are too expensive.
  • The US is in the midst of a jobless recovery.
  • The world is in the midst of synchronized economic expansion.
  • Meddling by lawyers and regulators is the new reality and negative for growth and profits.
  • Corporate balance sheet scares are over. It's back to EV/EBITDA and P/Es.
  • The developed world is losing its competitive advantage in manufacturing and services to China and India.
  • The US is the only developed country with high productivity growth.
Bets Against the Conventional Wisdom:

  • Buy USD, sell Euro.Sell Asia exposure, esp. commodities.
  • Buy expensive tech companies with good/improving fundamentals.
  • Buy government bonds, sell TIPS.
  • Buy staffing companies, consumer cyclicals and sell all other equities.
  • Buy industries with increasingly tough regulators (financials, energy, Europe).
  • Buy basic US and European industries, sell Infosys and Wipro.
  • Buy lower margin Japanese and European competitors (e.g. financials, retail, and transport) as they will soon show huge productivity gains already enjoyed by US companies.Sell their US counterparts.
  • Sell US and European consumer stocks, buy Asian consumer stocks; buy dividend yielding stocks and bonds, sell select pharma as elderly will demand price controls on drugs.

---

on iPod: All Grown Up - 1958 1:55 Johnny Horton 1956-1960 CD2 Country/Rock

Monday, April 11, 2005

Are we there yet ?

First post, just to check out the software...
---
On ipod: Pot Blessed Dinner 2:39 Wynton Marsalis Septet In This House, On This Morning Disc 2 jazz